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Prediction for CME (2025-03-17T11:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2025-03-17T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37872/-1 CME Note: Arrival Notes: Initial interplanetary shock seen at DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-03-21T01:42Z (ACE magnetic field data gap from 2025-03-21T04:00Z to 2025-03-21T09:48Z) characterized by rapid magnetic field rise from 3 to 6 nT, rapid increase in solar wind velocity from 380 km/s to 430 km/s, and simultaneous rises in solar wind density and temperature. A second magnetic field jump >10nT is observed at 2025-03-21T10:10Z, from around 9nT to 12nT with Bz initially mostly northward. In other solar wind components, a small but distinct speed jump from 370 km/s to 390 km/s, brief density spike from 15 p/cc to 22.9 p/cc, returning to 10 p/cc, and a minimal spike in temperature are observed with this second Bt spike. || CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-03-17T11:36Z. Also seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C3 but not visible in STEREO A COR2A imagery (where it would be near center disk from the perspective of STEREO A). The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around N12W30 which starts around 2025-03-17T10:36Z and is best seen in SDO AIA 304. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-21T01:42Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-20T09:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Space weather advisor:Lead Time: 66.95 hour(s) Difference: 16.70 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-03-18T06:45Z |
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